Movies – film, cinema, whatever you want to call them – remain one of the most powerful forms of storytelling. Each year, the Academy Awards attempt to honor the very best the medium has to offer. With nominations officially announced January 22, and the ceremony set for March 15, the conversation now turns to predictions. While this year’s Oscars brought plenty of expected contenders, the surprises may ultimately define the race.
One of the most shocking announcements came in the Best Actress category. Several anticipated contenders, including Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, were notably absent, as was Wicked: For Good entirely – a surprise that immediately sparked debate online. Instead, the nominees include Emma Stone (Bugonia), Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value). While Jessie Buckley seems poised to win for her restrained and emotionally devastating portrayal of Anne Hathaway in Hamnet, Emma Stone’s performance in Bugonia remains a personal standout and could earn a historic third Best Actress Oscar. Regardless of outcome [likely to go to Buckley] the category is stacked with performances that showcase a wide range of styles and emotional depth.
The Best Supporting Actress race is similarly matched, with nominations going to Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), and both Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value. Teyana enters as the frontrunner after securing a Golden Globe win, making her the likely choice for the Academy. However, Amy Madigan’s chilling turn as the antagonist in Zack Cregger’s Weapons deserves recognition – a performance elevated by what is arguably one of the strongest screenplays in this year’s horror slate.
Best Supporting Actor may be one of the night’s most unpredictable categories. Nominees include Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value), and both Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn for One Battle After Another. While Del Toro and Penn carry momentum from One Battle After Another, and Skarsgård remains a serious threat following his Golden Globe win for Sentimental Value, Jacob Elordi’s transformative performance as The Creature in Frankenstein stands out as the most daring. His physicality and emotional restraint turn a familiar character into something hauntingly new – a performance deserving of both attention and the award itself.
The Best Actor category, however, raises questions about who was left out. Despite strong performances from Leonardo DiCaprio (OBAA) and Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) this year, neither felt truly Oscar-worthy to me – particularly when compared to the conspicuous absence of Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) and Paul Mescal (Hamnet). Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), on the other hand, delivers a remarkable performance as twin brothers Smoke and Stack, crafting two distinct characters with clarity and control. Wagner Moura’s work in The Secret Agent is equally impressive, but Jordan’s performance feels like the kind The Academy ultimately rewards – overdue and ambitious. Though, unfortunately, due to the years of preparation, I am sure the reward will go to Timothée Chalamet.
When it comes to Best Picture, Sinners now appears poised to take the Academy’s top prize. While One Battle After Another paints a timely and unfortunately realistic look at America’s political reality, Sinners is the more complete cinematic achievement – balancing ambition, craft, and emotional impact with striking confidence. Its resonance extends beyond its themes, marking it as the film that defined the year rather than merely reflecting it. The Academy has increasingly rewarded films that feel culturally inevitable, and Sinners fits that mold.
With that in mind, Ryan Coogler also emerges as the likely winner for Best Director. His work on the film demonstrates a mastery of tone, performance, and scale, guiding the film with precision while allowing its risks to pay off. If Oscar night ultimately crowns Sinners with Best Picture, it will signal a willingness from the Academy to embrace cultural risks and cement the film’s place as the year’s undeniable standout.
The Oscars will be hosted by Conan O’Brien and aired on ABC March 22.
